TCFD Reference Scenarios for 食物, 农业 and Forest Products

Many parts of society are responding to the widespread consensus that the climate is changing and to scientific evidence on the potential impacts of climate change. Central Banks and financial institutions have introduced measures to assess climate risks to the financial system. 同样的, companies in the real economy are changing their business models and driving forward investment in net-zero transition to respond to the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change. Assessing how best to respond and testing the 弹性 of strategies and business models depends on exploring how the future could unfold.

所面临的挑战

The Task Force on 气候-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) finds that the 农业, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is steadily trending towards more quantitative scenario analysis. Still, reporting remains inconsistent and not comparable due to varying scenario applications. 在一次评估中, more than two-thirds of AFOLU companies conduct scenario analysis, but most use scenarios that do not explicitly focus on the AFOLU sector. New tools and support are needed for companies to effectively use scenario analysis to assess risks and opportunities, build transition plans and support TCFD-aligned 信息披露s.

商业案例

Scenario analysis enables companies to explore possible futures and drive discussions with risk management, 采购, strategy and other parts of the business around:

报告 & 信息披露 - a basis for TCFD reporting, investor conversations and alignment with specific temperature targets.

战略适应 & 弹性- inform assessments of business model 弹性 and understand how transition risks and opportunities could materialize.

财务影响 - a starting point for describing how transition risks and opportunities can link to financial impacts.

公共 & 政策参与 - use to engage with policymakers and as a tool for policy discussions based on scientific data.

解决方案

WBCSD召集了主要的食品, 农业 and Forest Products companies to develop a set of new sector-relevant climate transition scenarios to assess strategic 弹性 to climate risk and inform 信息披露s in response to the TCFD’s recommendations. The scenarios will be available through an online tool enabling users to navigate by specific variables (e.g., commodities and regions) and compare, visualize and download output data (e.g.、产量、价格和排放量). The 气候情景工具 will be accompanied by a set of guides, including a Scenario Analysis and Application Guide describing the use cases for the scenarios and recommendations for transition planning.